Modeling COA Uncertainty for Value Focused Thinking

The primary focus of this project is to find the probability distributions of the aspects (i.e. Military Effectiveness, Time, Cost, Humanitarian Cost, etc) for Course of Actions(COAs) to generate an overall distribution for the actual value. Python and Monte Carlo is employed to generate values and to propagate such values from a various array of distributions into a predetermined function. The PDFs will be validated as well as compared to the mean and variances of the MC, after validation.

Interns: Jayden Brown-Akoto, Mohana Gunuru

Mentor: Bliss Bodawala (FPS/KAU)